Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-11 30.534798 32.778461 35.196449 38.012080 41.221438 44.791012 49.097591
2025-05-18 26.810849 29.775350 33.162414 37.373916 42.551576 48.824237 57.189203
2025-05-25 24.405482 27.702186 31.615936 36.705706 43.312201 51.852049 64.205495
2025-06-01 22.682793 26.169122 30.429662 36.167639 43.949274 54.573616 71.099941
2025-06-08 21.170525 24.723653 29.162083 35.303775 43.928997 56.249273 76.660234
2025-06-15 20.649014 24.456558 29.336215 36.310514 46.534375 62.003302 89.895191
2025-06-22 19.797504 23.686206 28.763279 36.195599 47.452094 65.274106 99.759121
2025-06-29 18.907157 22.800132 27.957543 35.653309 47.623117 67.311100 107.850954
2025-07-06 17.989437 21.822484 26.956877 34.731328 47.076599 68.009027 113.395168
2025-07-13 17.754127 21.749216 27.199898 35.659890 49.581587 74.494899 133.983954
2025-07-20 17.443357 21.549243 27.240911 36.269397 51.612295 80.489200 156.435705
2025-07-27 17.040482 21.196449 27.033176 36.461003 52.926349 85.318776 178.588566
2025-08-03 16.500099 20.637718 26.510234 36.137394 53.337481 88.482633 198.372747
2025-08-10 15.936510 20.023232 25.874145 35.584951 53.271098 90.615761 216.538594
2025-08-17 15.399256 19.424207 25.230390 34.971740 53.018794 92.277851 234.559136
2025-08-24 14.928753 18.903284 24.679541 34.475218 52.936423 94.341814 256.571558
2025-08-31 14.415762 18.301838 23.978459 33.676814 52.174464 94.572117 270.638528
2025-09-07 14.342561 18.342313 24.268689 34.607206 55.011616 104.867328 354.394746
2025-09-14 14.037936 18.026471 23.983868 34.501073 55.675256 109.445202 414.637046
2025-09-21 13.664374 17.594705 23.496724 33.999994 55.434294 111.344770 460.201515
2025-09-28 13.234543 17.065849 22.835533 33.147185 54.343712 110.446596 480.039218
2025-10-05 13.189339 17.115430 23.102184 34.006076 57.163338 122.734659 695.844436
2025-10-12 13.083409 17.067601 23.206845 34.569233 59.391739 134.106527 1030.578005